Canada’s Conservative collapse: Poilievre trails as Carney surges

Toronto: Till the end of 2024 Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre was coasting towards becoming the next Prime Minister of Canada. Now, in just about four months, questions are being raised over whether he will be ousted as party Leader after the Federal election on April 28, or even retain his riding.

Conservative Party of Canada’s leader Pierre Poilievre holds a rally in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, on April 24. (REUTERS)

Poilievre’s party was leading the Justin Trudeau-led ruling Liberal Party by 20 points in December. As of Thursday, it trails by at least four points the ruling party now led by Prime Minister Mark Carney.

The aggregator 338 Canada placed the Liberals as securing 186 seats, 14 more than the majority mark of 172 in the House of Commons. The Conservatives are at 124. “I can’t think of a time when I’ve seen a swing that’s been quite that profound,” Andrew McDougall, professor of political science at the University of Toronto-Scarborough, said.

Whether Poilievre will survive as leader if the Conservatives do lose on Monday will be one of the major outcomes of the results. “If you’re looking at a situation where he was the runaway winner a couple of months ago and then he seems to have blown that. If that’s ultimately the result, obviously he’ll have to go through some kind of a review.”

Canadian outlets have reported that Poilievre may be in danger of losing in his riding (as constituencies are called in Canada) of Carleton. But that may be somewhat overblown since 338 Canada gave him a 93 per cent of retaining the seat he has held since 2004.

If the Conservatives can hold the Liberals to a minority, Poilievre could survive. “There is history in Canadian politics of leaders getting more than one kick at the can so it wouldn’t be completely unparalleled here but if it is a smashing majority for the Liberals, it is going to be more difficult conversation for sure he’s going to have,” McDougall felt.

There are already rumbling of jostling to replace Poilievre. In fact, Ontario Premier Doug Ford joked about that on Wednesday as a video from Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston was interpreted by some in the media as a promotion towards a possible leadership run.

Ford, himself, may be among the contenders, as his provincial Progressive Conservative Party just got re-elected for a third term in February.

Poilievre’s predecessors, Erin O’Toole in 2021 and Andrew Scheer in 2019, did not survive defeats in the Federal elections, though both resulted in the Trudeau-led Liberals being held to a minority. In fact, in both, the Conservatives polled a higher percentage than the ruling party but still lost.

Poilievre’s Conservatives are polling at 38 per cent or more, which in other Federal polls, would put them in majority territory. However, the collapse of the New Democratic Party has meant the Liberals are polling at over 40 per cent.

The results will prove decisive in more ways than one for Poilievre. But, as Ford warned over manoeuvres to replace him, “Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, let’s see what happens on the 28th.”