Record-breaking gas prices in California by 2026? Here’s what a gallon could cost you

May 08, 2025 11:56 AM IST

A recent study by a University of Southern California professor claims that CA gas prices could touch $8.44 per gallon by 2026.

Gas prices is an ever-increasing headache for Americans, but for Californians, things may get even complicated come 2026. This new fear has been “unlocked” following a recent study by a University of Southern California professor.

Gasoline prices in California to see major hike in 2026, says new study(Unsplash)

The study suggests that gasoline prices in the state could rise to $8.44 per gallon by the end of 2026. Professor Michael A. Mische, who conducted this study attributed this escalating rise of gas prices to the pending closure of two refineries. He suggests that once these refineries in California shut down, one-fifth of the state’s refining capacity would see a disruption, leading to rising prices.

How far are gas prices in California expected to rise?

Gas prices in California could touch $8.44 per gallon come next year, from $4.78 per gallon (current rates). According to AAA reports, CA gas prices are highest in the country, and if the study’s claims come true, this could have a nationwide impact based on shortened supply of gasoline.

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Professor Mische closely studied California’s historical gas prices, oil supply and refining capacity. Then this entire data was modeled along the the likely impact of refinery closures, coupled with costly new fossil fuel and the new refinery fees and regulations. Based on these calculations, it is being predicted that CA gas prices could touch record peak in 2026.

Around his study Professor Mische went on to say, “Based on current demand and consumption assumptions and estimates, the combined consequences of the Phillips 66 and Valero refinery closure, together with the potential impact of legislative actions such as, but not limited to, the new LCFS standard, increase in excise taxes, Cap and Trade, SBX1-2, and ABX2-1 could create an impact. The estimated average consumer price of regular gasoline could potentially increase by as much a 75% from the April 23, 2025, price of $4.816 to $7.348 to $8.435 a gallon by calendar year end 2026.”

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