Trump holds ‘very good’ call with Brazilian counterpart Lula, pivots away from Bolsonaro

When Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump finally talked over their differences Monday, the man at the center of their months-long spat didn’t even merit a mention.

Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump finally talked over their differences(AFP)

A Trump social media post hailing the talk as “very good” didn’t include the name of Jair Bolsonaro, the former Brazilian president whose trial on coup attempt charges inspired the US leader to impose 50% tariffs on many Brazilian goods earlier this year.

And although Lula asked Trump to lift the trade levies and US restrictions on top Brazilian officials, neither Bolsonaro nor his September conviction came up in the 30-minute phone call, according to a person present for the conversation.

If the call itself suggested a thaw in Brazil-US relations, the sudden sidelining of Bolsonaro offered an even clearer sign that momentum remains firmly behind Lula, the leftist leader who’d already seen his approval ratings rise amid his dispute with Trump.

The cheery statements, by contrast, left at least some Bolsonaro allies dismayed, according to a person close to the powerful conservative family who, like the others, requested anonymity to discuss internal matters.

Brazilian officials are hesitant to declare premature victory. But Lula’s government saw Bolsonaro’s total absence from the discussion as an indication that Trump may be willing to turn the page on his ally, two other officials said, a development that would shift the focus from unresolvable political differences to economic matters on which there’s room to cut a deal.

That wouldn’t just remove the biggest obstacle to trade talks between the nations, as Trump explicitly imposed tariffs after Brazil’s top court refused to drop its trial against Bolsonaro.

It would also give Lula the chance to fully unleash the sort of charm offensive leaders like Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum have used to make headway with Trump, and that has long been a key weapon in the 79-year-old Brazilian’s political arsenal.

For decades, Lula has boasted a reputation as an enchanting figure capable of winning over everyone from George W. Bush to Emmanuel Macron despite sharp ideological differences or fierce policy divides.

Trump is notoriously prone to flattery, and while Lula is too proud a politician to give into the demands of any foreign leader, he’s hardly above a little puffery if he sees it as useful.

On Monday’s call, Lula reminded his counterpart that Brazil runs a trade deficit with the US, part of his case that it has the commercial relationship with the US that Trump claims to want with every nation.

He also cast the conversation as the chance to press reset on a 200-year allyship between the Western Hemisphere’s largest democracies, striking notes similar to those Prime Minister Keir Starmer sang about the UK-US relationship during Trump’s visit last month.

It was a push to build on the progress the pair of leaders made during a seconds-long encounter at the United Nations General Assembly two weeks ago, a run-in that left Trump hailing the “excellent chemistry” he’d enjoyed with Lula. They even took time to “reiterate the positive impression” each took away from it, according to a readout from Brazil’s government.

What Bloomberg Economics Says…

A thaw in strained trade relations with the US could have significant upside for Brazil, which faces a potential 1% hit to GDP from Donald Trump’s current tariff measures. Further signs of rapprochement following a call between the US president and his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Monday suggest Washington may be open to paring back at least some of the additional 40% levy it’s slapped on the Latin American country, as Lula has requested.

It’s too early to know if Lula’s push will work. But high-level communications channels have been unclogged, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio set to spearhead ongoing negotiations with Brazil Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and other officials in the coming weeks.

Lula and Trump, meanwhile, both pledged that they’d soon meet in person. Trump’s schedule is crowded, with expectations that he’ll host like-minded Argentina leader Javier Milei next week amid their own trade negotiations and talks over financial aid for the country’s ailing economy.

But a sit-down with Lula is possible as soon as a summit of Southeast Asian nations in Malaysia later this month, and the Brazilian also signaled his willingness to travel to Washington for a meeting if necessary.

Lula said Monday night that he was “surprised by the cordiality” of Trump during the call, and that he considered it important to have a face-to-face conversation to move forward on negotiations.

“I told him: For us to start talking, it’s important to begin lifting the tariffs, to remove the sanctions on our ministers, and to start discussing things more honestly,” he said in an interview with TV Mirante.

Bolsonaro Concern

For months, Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo has lobbied the Trump administration to come to his father’s defense, seeing US political pressure as the only way for the former president to escape his legal woes and run against Lula again next year.

Some inside the Bolsonaro family were already uncomfortable with the vibes coming out of the UN encounter, and saw the phone call and resulting statements as another indication that Trump is ready to move on, a person familiar with the situation said.

Their hope now, the person added, lies with Rubio, whose hawkish approach to Latin America’s leftist leaders has inspired expectations of a more ideologically-aligned stance toward Brazil. It’s a view shared by Eduardo Bolsonaro, who praised Rubio in a social media post Monday afternoon.

But Lula’s administration senses that Trump, not Rubio, will ultimately drive the decision-making process, one of the Brazilian officials said.

And after months in which Eduardo appeared to be the only Brazilian with high-level access to Washington, it’s Lula who seems to have established a direct link to Trump himself: They exchanged phone numbers during the call, and Lula, one Brazilian official said, told Trump to call him anytime.