US government shutdown: Will it hurt Republicans or Democrats more in the 2026 midterm elections?

With the U.S. under a federal government shutdown, both the Democrats and the Republicans are racing to make sure voters know who to blame. The back-and-forth could prove crucial to how the fight will shape up before the 2026 midterm elections.

US government shutdown: Will the fight hurt Republicans or Democrats more in the 2026 midterm elections?(AP)

Democrats launch health care ads

House Democrats rolled out digital ads in 35 swing districts in Washington, ABC News reported. The campaign accuses Republicans of “standing in the way of affordable health care on purpose.” Their demand: include health coverage protections in a funding bill. Republicans have rejected that push.

In the same report, ABC News also states that a separate Democratic-aligned group, House Majority Forward, is spending $3 million on ads in 10 GOP-held districts. The message is similar. Republicans, they argue, are choosing politics over people.

Republicans frame it as sabotage

The House GOP campaign arm responded with its own digital spots in key swing areas, per News 6. One ad claimed that “it’s sabotage,” and that the Democrats are “threatening a government shutdown to stop President Trump’s policies,” tying the fight to Trump’s agenda on crime and immigration.

Two conservative groups, One Nation and American Action Network, also bought airtime in New York and Washington. “The woke mob demanded a government shutdown. So that’s exactly what liberals in Congress are doing,” their ad says.

Also read: Hakeem Jeffries berates Trump over govt shutdown, says Republicans want to inflict pain on Americans

History lessons from past shutdowns

The record on whether shutdowns sway elections is not clear. In 2013, Republicans pushed for changes to President Barack Obama’s health law and forced a 16-day shutdown. In the next elections, they gained 13 House seats and took nine in the Senate, in a landslide win, according to Time.

But the 2018–2019 partial shutdown played out differently, The Washington Post reported. That fight, which stretched 35 days, centered on Trump’s border wall funding. It ended on terms Democrats demanded, which was reopening the government first. Trump later lost the presidency in 2020, though COVID dominated that campaign. Democrats gained control of the Senate, but Republicans flipped seats in the House.

Both sides continue to deliver their messages to voters, but history suggests shutdowns don’t always tip elections one way. Still, with margins so thin in Congress, even a small shift could matter in the 2026 midterm elections.