US polls: Can Republicans lose the House? 5 congressional races to watch

With the US presidential election just days away, the intense poll battle between incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump continues to dominate the headlines. However, alongside the November 5 polling, the fate of Congress’ two chambers: the Senate and the House of Representatives will also be decided.

Republicans hold 220 seats compared to 212 for Democrats in the House.(File)

The stakes for the election in the House of Representatives are higher as every one of the 435 House seats will be on the ballot this election cycle unlike the Senate, where only a third of the seats are contested.

These House races will unfold across every corner of the nation, as the House allocates seats based on each state’s population, with distinct districts that each representative must serve.

Every two years, the house witnesses a pertinent change as all members seek re-election and this year, the Republican Party seems to be on the defensive, struggling to keep its slim majority in the chamber.

Republicans and the House of Representatives: Current picture

Currently, Republicans hold 220 seats compared to 212 for Democrats enjoying a slim majority in the House that dictates and determines not only the potential to amend or hinder new legislation but also influences critical functions such as initiating revenue bills and overseeing impeachment processes, uniquely vested in the House.

As per the experts quoted in an Al-Jazeera report, Republicans stand vulnerable in the 34 seats which can lead to a shift in party control this November. However, there are five key seats that voters must pay close attention to. Take a look:

New York (4th district)

New York has long been a bastion of Democratic strength. However, when you delve deeper, the electoral landscape reveals a complex tapestry of red and blue districts. This is especially true on Long Island, where fierce political battles are prevalent.

Long Island boasts some of New York’s most competitive House races, with the contest for the 4th congressional district emerging as a key battleground.

In recent years, both Democrats and Republicans have won the area. In the 2020 presidential race, Joe Biden won the 4th district by 15 percentage points, and his fellow Democrat, Kathleen Rice, handily defended her seat for a final term in the House.

But two years later, a new House election was held — and the seat fell to Republican hands, thus, making it a swindler seat for both the parties and the Reds overly vulnerable.

North Carolina’s 1st District

North Carolina has been seen as a pivotal swing state in the recent election cycles, with Democrats and Republicans locked in a tight contest. If analysts are to be believed, this streak is likely to continue making the Republicans vulnerable.

If Harris secures power, she would make history as the first Democratic presidential candidate to secure the state since 2008.

However, the spotlight also shines on a specific area possible to face for a significant shift: the 1st congressional district, nestled in northeast North Carolina along the Virginia border. Incumbent Democrat Don Davis faces an intense challenge that brings issues of race and redistricting to the forefront.

Remarkably, the last Republican elected in this district was in 1883, with every representative since the 1990s being Black. Yet, both of these historic streaks could be in jeopardy come November 5.

Alaska District

Alaska faces a unique congressional challenge: the entire state is represented by a single member in the House, making it the largest district in the U.S. In the last election cycle, Democrat Mary Peltola made a historic mark.

Now, Peltola faces a formidable opponent once again as Nick Begich III returns to the race in 2024, determined to reclaim the seat and mounting a serious challenge to her historical achievement.

California’s 27th District

In a strategic move as dubbed by several political experts, Trump recently appeared in California’s Coachella Valley, a critical area in the final stretch of the election. At first glance, it seems unusual; after all, California is widely perceived as a Democratic-dominated state. However, this seat holds great potential to change the power course of the House of Representatives, with both parties allocating millions for district-level campaigns.

One of the most fiercely contested territories is California’s 27th district, located on the northern border of Los Angeles. During the 2020 presidential election, this district was among only five in California to elect a Republican.

Washington’s 3rd District

The battle for Washington state’s 3rd congressional district is shaping up to be another key contest in the quest for House control. This race pits two formidable opponents from the previous election against each other once more: Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican Joe Kent. In 2022, Gluesenkamp Perez clinched a narrow victory, winning 50.1 per cent to 49.3 per cent.

Now, both candidates are back at it making it one of the most nail-biting contests for America.